Q&A: What is in the global ‘roadmap’ for transitioning away from fossil fuels?

Brazil has produced a voluntary global "roadmap" for moving away from coal, oil and gas, which it says is "urgent, inevitable and, yet, possible," and which is due to be discussed at the COP31 climate summit in Turkey next week.

The roadmap, produced by the host of COP30, has no "one-size-fits-all" approach. Countries are asked to assess their "readiness" through a "Belém readiness index", a voluntary self-assessment tool. They are then sorted into four "archetypes" and pursue tailored policy levers, with efforts culminating by 2033, ten years after COP28 called on all countries to transition away from fossil fuels.

The roadmap has three phases: from now until 2028, focused on institutions and long-term signals; 2028 to 2030, focused on the physical transformation of energy systems; and 2031 to 2033, focused on scaling up. It acknowledges that the world can no longer meet the 1.5C limit without first overshooting it. Brazil presented it outside the UN process after a group of 85 countries sought its inclusion in COP30's formal outcome and other countries opposed this.

Experts broadly welcomed the approach, though the roadmap is not binding. COP31 co-presidents Turkey and Australia are focusing on raising electricity's share of final energy from almost 24% in 2023 to 35% by 2035. Officials were reluctant to predict how the roadmap would be received at COP31.

Key points

• The roadmap is voluntary, and countries are not obliged to respond to its findings.
• It was created outside the UN climate process after it was excluded from COP30's negotiated outcome.
• Countries first diagnose their readiness, then are sorted into four archetypes.
• The second global stocktake is due at COP33, with NDCs due in 2028 to 2030.
• Experts say the roadmap is a consultative effort, and vulnerable countries will need finance to diversify.

Why it matters

The roadmap sets out how countries might plan their exit from fossil fuels, and COP31 will show whether it gains formal recognition. Experts argue that vulnerable fossil-fuel-dependent economies will need international finance to make the plans workable.