Food prices in Europe: Where are grocery costs rising fastest?

Eurozone inflation reached 4% in October, its highest in more than three years, and food prices are now starting to rise again after a quiet year.

Energy remains the main driver, with fuel, electricity and heating 20.8% dearer than a year earlier. Food, alcohol and tobacco rose 1.6% across the eurozone, but the picture is uneven: fresh and unprocessed food is climbing faster than processed goods. In Italy, a two-week lorry driver protest over diesel costs emptied shelves in Campania, Puglia and Calabria, while unprocessed food there rose 7.5% year on year.

Fresh produce is especially exposed because it cannot be stored for long and depends on diesel-powered transport and heated greenhouses. In France, fresh products were 8% dearer in October, while food in Germany rose only 0.4%. Across the EU, food has risen about a third since September 2021, and prices in Hungary are up by more than half.

Pantheon Macroeconomics expects eurozone inflation to peak at 4.5% in January and sees the European Central Bank raising interest rates in December.

Key points

• Eurozone inflation hit 4% in October, the highest in more than three years, driven mainly by energy.
• Unprocessed food in Italy rose 7.5% year on year in October, and fresh products in France rose 8%.
• Food prices in Germany rose just 0.4% in October.
• Sweden's food prices fell 6.3% after a VAT cut from 12% to 6%, which runs until the end of 2027.
• Food in the EU is about a third more expensive than in September 2021.
• Pantheon Macroeconomics expects an ECB rate rise in December.